Match details. AFC Champions League Elite, League Phase - 2. Kick-off is Tue 13 Oct, 08:45 Lagos time at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle.
What's at stake. Newcastle United Jets are 16th on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Công An Nhân Dân. A win would take them above Công An Nhân Dân. Gamba Osaka are 2nd on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Kashima and SHANGHAI SIPG. A win would take them above Kashima.
Form. Newcastle United Jets have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D W D and in this competition they have gone L. Gamba Osaka have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L and in this competition they have gone W.
The numbers. Newcastle United Jets score 1.8 and concede 2.1 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. Newcastle United Jets average 12.0 shots (4.6 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Gamba Osaka score 1.4 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. Gamba Osaka average 13.9 shots (4.1 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
The case against. Newcastle United Jets's record still gives them 40% to win.
The read. Gamba Osaka or the draw. An open game. Gamba Osaka are the stronger side on form and the table. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.12, 90% on the records (Newcastle United Jets: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10; Gamba Osaka: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: Newcastle United Jets Over 0.5 Goals at 1.22. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Cards (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Gamba Osaka Over 0.5 goals (Gamba Osaka's own games don't back it (5 of 10)). Predicted score: Newcastle United Jets 1-2 Gamba Osaka (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).