Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 20:15 Lagos time.
What's at stake. SS Pennarossa are 14th on 3 points after 4 games, level on points with San Giovanni, 1 point clear of San Marino Academy. A win would take them above San Giovanni. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio are 1st on 12 points after 4 games, level on points with Tre Penne.
Form. SS Pennarossa have won three, drawn two and lost three of their last eight league games, 1.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L L L D. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio have won six, drawn one and lost none of their last seven league games, 2.7 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. SS Pennarossa score 1.4 and concede 2.2 a game over their last eight, with two clean sheets. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio score 3.1 and concede 0.9 a game over their last seven, with four clean sheets. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio average 11.4 shots (3.8 on target), 5.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings SS Pennarossa have won one, drawn one and lost eight. Nine of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, one was drawn and SS Folgore Falciano Calcio won three. The last time they met, on 21 Feb 2026, it finished SS Pennarossa 2-3 SS Folgore Falciano Calcio.
The read. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make SS Folgore Falciano Calcio the likelier winners; SS Folgore Falciano Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour SS Folgore Falciano Calcio; the meetings favour SS Folgore Falciano Calcio. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%. Nine of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SS Pennarossa 1-2 SS Folgore Falciano Calcio (9% chance).
The agreed story. SS Folgore Falciano Calcio or the draw, an open game.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).