SCSPC

20:15Fri 9 Oct

ACL

SP Cailungo vs AC Libertas

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Campionato Sammarinese, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 20:15 Lagos time.

What's at stake. SP Cailungo are 11th on 3 points after 4 games, level on points with Juvenes / Dogana, level on points with Murata. A win would take them above Juvenes / Dogana. AC Libertas are 8th on 5 points after 4 games, 1 point behind La Fiorita, 1 point clear of Fiorentino. A win would take them above La Fiorita.

Form. SP Cailungo have won one, drawn one and lost seven of their last nine league games, 0.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L L L D. AC Libertas have won two, drawn two and lost four of their last eight league games, 1.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: D L W D L.

The numbers. SP Cailungo score one and concede 2.4 a game over their last nine, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. SP Cailungo average 8.2 shots (2.5 on target), 2.8 corners and 1.2 cards a game. AC Libertas score 0.8 and concede 2.5 a game over their last eight, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal.

Head to head. In the last nine meetings SP Cailungo have won one, drawn four and lost four. Four of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, SP Cailungo won one, two were drawn and AC Libertas won one. The last time they met, on 24 Jan 2026, it finished SP Cailungo 1-2 AC Libertas.

The case against. SP Cailungo's record still gives them 25% to win.

The read. AC Libertas to win. A tight game. AC Libertas are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AC Libertas; the meetings favour AC Libertas. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: SP Cailungo 0-1 AC Libertas (8% chance).

The agreed story. AC Libertas or the draw, a tight game.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Double Chance: Draw or AC LibertasLEANPAGE ONLY

1.30

ACL 5 of 9 (56%) · SPC 8 of 9 (89%)61.7%

AC Libertas unbeaten in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · SP Cailungo failed to win 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · H2H 5 of 6 · AC Libertas: only games against sides at SP Cailungo's level · SP Cailungo: only games against sides at AC Libertas's level

GOALS

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPC 7 of 9 (78%) · ACL 8 of 9 (89%)96.3%

SP Cailungo: under 5.5 goals in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AC Libertas: under 5.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 6 of 6 · SP Cailungo: only games against sides at AC Libertas's level · AC Libertas: only games against sides at SP Cailungo's level

Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPC 7 of 9 (78%) · ACL 8 of 9 (89%)90.9%

SP Cailungo: under 4.5 goals in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AC Libertas: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 6 of 6 · SP Cailungo: only games against sides at AC Libertas's level · AC Libertas: only games against sides at SP Cailungo's level

SP CAILUNGO GOALS

SP Cailungo Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SPC 7 of 9 (78%) · ACL 8 of 9 (89%)58%

SP Cailungo scored in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · AC Libertas conceded in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 4 of 6 · SP Cailungo: only games against sides at AC Libertas's level · AC Libertas: only games against sides at SP Cailungo's level

AC LIBERTAS GOALS

AC Libertas Over 0.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

no price yet

ACL 6 of 9 (67%) · SPC 8 of 9 (89%)50.2%

AC Libertas scored in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · SP Cailungo conceded in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 78% · H2H 4 of 6 · AC Libertas: only games against sides at SP Cailungo's level · SP Cailungo: only games against sides at AC Libertas's level

Left off the list: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); AC Libertas or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); AC Libertas or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 8%

SP Cailungo goals →

AC Libertas goals ↓

0-08%

1-010%

2-08%

3-04%

4-01%

5-00.4%

0-18%

1-113%

2-19%

3-14%

4-12%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.9%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.8%

2-40.6%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

SP CAILUNGOLLLLDLLLLW0.40 PPG

AC LIBERTASWLLLDDWLLD0.90 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SP CAILUNGO HOMExAC LIBERTAS AWAY

0.90SCORED A GAME0.702.50CONCEDED A GAME2.3010%CLEAN SHEETS10%50%FAILED TO SCORE25%

THE BANK

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

90%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

38%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

95%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

SP CAILUNGO OR DRAW

54%

NO · 80/85

AC LIBERTAS OR DRAW

71%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (4 and 4 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 9

SP CAILUNGO 1 · 11%DRAW 4AC LIBERTAS 4 · 44%

6 of 9BOTH TEAMS SCORED

6 of 9OVER 1.5 GOALS

4 of 9OVER 2.5 GOALS

1 of 9OVER 3.5 GOALS

2022-11-05SP Cailungo 1 – 1 AC Libertas

2023-03-08SP Cailungo 1 – 2 AC Libertas

2023-11-04SP Cailungo 1 – 2 AC Libertas

2024-02-24SP Cailungo 0 – 1 AC Libertas

2025-01-11SP Cailungo 2 – 2 AC Libertas

2025-04-26SP Cailungo 0 – 0 AC Libertas

2025-09-19SP Cailungo 1 – 0 AC Libertas

2025-09-23SP Cailungo 1 – 1 AC Libertas

TRENDS

SP Cailungo have scored in 70% of their games.

AC Libertas have scored in 60% of their games.

SP Cailungo kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

AC Libertas kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards