AC Milan vs Atalanta
Match details. Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. The referee is Daniele Chiffi.
What's at stake. AC Milan are 6th on 12 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Cagliari, 1 point clear of Juventus. A win would take them above Cagliari. Atalanta are 10th on 9 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Napoli, level on points with Lecce. A win would take them above Napoli.
Team news. AC Milan are without M. Gabbia (thigh injury), A. Saelemaekers (ankle injury), M. Gabbia (thigh injury), A. Saelemaekers (ankle injury). A. Cissè is their top scorer. AC Milan's line-up is confirmed. Atalanta are without E. Elmas (red card), I. Hien (muscle injury), F. Kessie (calf injury), O. Kossounou (thigh injury), G. Scalvini (thigh injury), R. Bellanova (thigh injury). G. Scamacca is their top scorer. G. Scalvini is their centre-back. O. Kossounou is their centre-back. Atalanta's line-up is confirmed.
Form. AC Milan have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L D. Atalanta have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L L.
The numbers. AC Milan score 1.8 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. AC Milan average 12.0 shots (4.7 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 60% of the ball. Atalanta score 1.3 and concede one a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Atalanta average 13.1 shots (4.7 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings AC Milan have won two, drawn three and lost five. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, one was drawn and Atalanta won three. The last time they met, on 10 May 2026, it finished AC Milan 2-3 Atalanta: AC Milan had 20 shots to 9, 58% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make AC Milan the likelier winners, but AC Milan are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Atalanta. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Atalanta's record still gives them 37% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The read. AC Milan to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make AC Milan the likelier winners; AC Milan are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Atalanta. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Atalanta Under 1.5 Goals at 1.38, 71% on the records (Atalanta scored under 1.5 in 5 of 7; AC Milan conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 8). Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 4.5 Goals (AC Milan are a clear winner, no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: AC Milan 1-0 Atalanta (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).