INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - UEFA CHAMPIONS LEAGUE

ARSARS

20:00Tue 13 Oct

LIL

LIL

Arsenal vs Lille

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. This is a UEFA Champions League, League Stage - 2 tie. Kick-off is Tue 13 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It takes place at Emirates Stadium, London. The referee is Felix Zwayer.

What's at stake. Arsenal sit 15th on 3 points after 1 game, level on points with Real Madrid and AEK Athens FC. A win would lift them above Real Madrid. Lille are 22nd on 0 points after 1 game, level on points with Villarreal and Slavia Praha. A win would move them above Villarreal.

Team news. Arsenal are missing P. Hincapie (ankle injury), W. Saliba (back injury), C. Tzolis (hamstring injury), M. Zubimendi (knock) and C. Mosquera (muscle injury). Lille are without H. Igamane (knee injury), E. Mbappe (red card) and T. Santos (knee injury).

Form. Arsenal have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. In this competition Arsenal have gone W. Lille have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L W. In this competition Lille have gone L.

The numbers. Arsenal score 2.4 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. They average 14.5 shots (5.5 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 59% of the ball. Lille score 1.3 and concede one a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. They average 10.9 shots (4.8 on target), 3.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 79% against the records' 57%.

The read. No firm call: Arsenal are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Arsenal the likelier winners; Arsenal are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Arsenal. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (Arsenal are a clear winner, no Unders); Arsenal or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Arsenal Over 1.5 goals (Lille's own games don't back it (4 of 10)). Predicted score: Arsenal 3-0 Lille (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.28

ARS 4 of 5 (80%) · LIL 8 of 10 (80%)78.8%

Arsenal: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Lille: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Under 3.5 Goals (Arsenal are a clear winner - no Unders); Arsenal or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Arsenal Over 1.5 goals (Lille's own games don't back it (4 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Arsenal are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Arsenal are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 3–0 10.5%

Arsenal goals →

Lille goals ↓

0-05%

1-011%

2-013%

3-010%

4-06%

5-03%

0-13%

1-18%

2-19%

3-17%

4-14%

5-12%

0-21%

1-23%

2-23%

3-22%

4-21%

5-20.7%

0-30.3%

1-30.6%

2-30.7%

3-30.6%

4-30.3%

5-30.2%

0-40.0%

1-40.1%

2-40.1%

3-40.1%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.0%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

ARSENALLWWWWWWWLW2.40 PPG

LILLEDWLWDWLWLW1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ARSENAL HOMExLILLE AWAY

2.00SCORED A GAME1.301.00CONCEDED A GAME1.0050%CLEAN SHEETS50%17%FAILED TO SCORE0%4.50CORNERS A GAME3.381.12CARDS A GAME1.751.86xG1.360.80xG AGAINST1.56

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

2.50POINTS A GAME2.17+0.83GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.83-0.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-3.22.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.06LEAGUE GAMES6

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

75%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

48%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

98%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

ARSENAL OR DRAW

71%

NO · 80/85

LILLE OR DRAW

37%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

ARSENALxLILLE

5GAMES51.40SCORED A GAME1.401.00CONCEDED A GAME0.802.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.280%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%40%BOTH SCORE40%5.4CARDS IN THEIR GAMES2.87.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES7.8

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TEAM NEWS

ARSENAL

Out: P. Hincapie (Ankle Injury), W. Saliba (Back Injury), C. Tzolis (Hamstring Injury), M. Zubimendi (Knock), C. Mosquera (Muscle Injury), P. Hincapie (Ankle Injury)

LILLE

Out: H. Igamane (Knee Injury), E. Mbappe (Red Card), T. Santos (Knee Injury), H. Igamane (Knee Injury), E. Mbappe (Red Card), T. Santos (Knee Injury)

TRENDS

Arsenal have scored in 90% of their games.

Lille have scored in 90% of their games.

Arsenal kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

Lille kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsleague tableteam newscornerscards