FC Helsingoer vs ASA Aarhus
Match details. 3rd Division, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. FC Helsingoer are 5th on 17 points after 10 games, level on points with Næsby, 1 point clear of ASA Aarhus. A win would take them above Næsby. ASA Aarhus are 6th on 16 points after 10 games, 1 point behind FC Helsingor, 3 points clear of Holstebro. A win would take them above FC Helsingor.
Form. FC Helsingoer have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W L. In this competition FC Helsingoer have gone L W D W L W. ASA Aarhus have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W L. In this competition ASA Aarhus have gone L W L W L W.
The numbers. FC Helsingoer score 2.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. ASA Aarhus score 0.8 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet.
The case against. ASA Aarhus's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. FC Helsingoer to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make FC Helsingoer the likelier winners; FC Helsingoer are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Helsingoer. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.19, 76% on the records (FC Helsingoer: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; ASA Aarhus: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Backup: FC Helsingoer or ASA Aarhus at 1.23. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: ASA Aarhus or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs FC Helsingoer); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: FC Helsingoer 2-1 ASA Aarhus (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).