Match details. Serie D, Group A, Group A - 7. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Asti Calcio are 5th on 10 points after 6 games, level on points with Ligorna, level on points with Gozzano. A win would take them above Ligorna. Gsd Lascaris are 11th on 8 points after 6 games, level on points with Imperia, level on points with Sanremese. A win would take them above Imperia.
Form. Asti Calcio have won three, drawn one and lost two of their last six, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W W. Gsd Lascaris have won two, drawn three and lost one of their last six, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D W W.
The numbers. Asti Calcio score 1.3 and concede 1.2 a game over their last six, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Gsd Lascaris score 0.7 and concede 0.7 a game over their last six, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal.
The case against. Gsd Lascaris's record still gives them 33% to win.
The read. Asti Calcio to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Asti Calcio the likelier winners; Asti Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 17%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Gsd Lascaris or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs Asti Calcio); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Asti Calcio 1-0 Gsd Lascaris (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).