FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora
Match details. It's a Liga Portugal Regular Season, 8 clash on Sun 11 Oct at 20:30 Lagos time. The game is at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Aruca. Referee Luis Carlos Mateus Filipe will be in charge.
What's at stake. Arouca sit sixth on 11 points, three behind Academico Viseu and level with GIL Vicente, a win would pull them level with Viseu. Estrela Amadora are ninth on 10 points, just a point off SC Braga and two clear of Alverca, a win would push them above Braga.
Form. Arouca have five wins, three draws and two losses in their last ten, averaging 1.8 points a game. Their last five results are D L D W L. Estrela have two wins, six draws and two defeats in their last ten, 1.2 points a game, with L D W D W in the most recent five.
The numbers. At home Arouca have scored 2.4 and conceded 1.2 per game in their last five, keeping one clean sheet. They average 10.2 shots (4.3 on target), 3.2 corners and 2.8 cards, holding 51% of possession. Away Estrela also score 2.4 and concede 2.4 in their last five, with no clean sheets. They average 9.0 shots (3.6 on target), 3.6 corners and 3.0 cards, holding 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In their last six meetings Arouca have three wins, one draw and two defeats. Three of those games went over 2.5 goals and both sides hit the net in three matches. In the last four meetings the results are split two-all. The most recent clash on 19 Apr 2026 ended 1-0 to Arouca, with Arouca 11 shots to 15, 50% possession and six yellows.
The case against. Estrela's odds still only give them a 23% chance to win.
The read. FC Arouca to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make FC Arouca the likelier winners; FC Arouca are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game and their records put over 2.5 goals at 81%.
The bets. Best bet: FC Arouca 1UP at 1.55, 80% on the records (FC Arouca scored first 3 of last 5, led in 4; led in 4 of 5 at home). Backup: Over 3.5 Cards at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: FC Arouca 2-1 Estrela Amadora (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).