Excelsior Rotterdam vs FC Groningen
Match details. Eredivisie regular season round 8. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 15:45 Lagos time at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Rotterdam. Richard Martens will referee.
What's at stake. Excelsior sit seventh on 11 points after seven games, three points behind Fortuna Sittard and level with Groningen. A win would move them level with Fortuna Sittard. Groningen sit eighth on 11 points, level with Excelsior and GO Ahead Eagles. A win would lift them above Excelsior.
Team news. Excelsior are missing N. Naujoks through injury. Groningen are without T. Hernes, M. Jeng, T. Mercera, E. van der Laan and R. Metu, all injured.
Form. Excelsior have five wins, three draws and two losses in their last ten, averaging 1.8 points a game. Their last five are D L D W W. Groningen have five wins, two draws and three losses in ten, averaging 1.7 points a game. Their recent five are W D D L L.
The numbers. Excelsior average 2.2 goals for and 1.4 against over ten games, with two clean sheets. They manage about 9.5 shots (4.5 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game, holding 41% of possession. Groningen score 1.6 and concede two on the road in their last five away games, with no clean sheets. They average 10.9 shots (4.9 on target), 4.1 corners and 1.3 cards, with 50% possession.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Excelsior have three wins and six losses, no draws. Four of those games went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in two. In the last four meetings Groningen have three wins to Excelsior's one. The most recent clash on 2 May 2026 ended 3-2 to Excelsior, with 18 shots to 12 and 44% possession.
Where it pulls both ways. Both teams' goals for and against suggest an open game. Their records give an over 2.5 chance of 67%. Yet five of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Groningen's record still leaves them a 40% chance to win. But goal expectations are mixed, with five of the last nine meetings ending under 2.5.
The read. Excelsior Rotterdam or the draw. An open game. Excelsior are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.18, 78% on the records (Excelsior Rotterdam: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10; FC Groningen: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Excelsior Rotterdam or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.31. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Excelsior Rotterdam 2-1 FC Groningen (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).