Match details. Brasileiro Serie B. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 21:30 Lagos time.
Form. Nautico PE have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L D. Vila Nova FC GO have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D.
The numbers. Nautico PE score 1.7 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Nautico PE average 6.3 corners and 2.8 cards a game. Vila Nova FC GO score 1.5 and concede 0.6 a game over their last ten, with eight clean sheets and three games without a goal. Vila Nova FC GO average 5.0 corners and 2.6 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.23, 75% on the records (Nautico PE: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 at home; Vila Nova FC GO: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 10). Leave: Vila Nova FC GO or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Vila Nova FC GO or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Nautico PE Under 1.5 goals (Nautico PE's own games don't back it (3 of 6)). Predicted score: Nautico PE 1-1 Vila Nova FC GO (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).