Match details. Primera B, Regular Season - 39. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 19:30 Lagos time. It is played at Armenia Stadium, Buenos Aires.
What's at stake. CD Armenio are 8th on 60 points after 38 games, 1 point behind Real Pilar, 5 points clear of Comunicaciones. A win would take them above Real Pilar. Club Comunicaciones are 9th on 55 points after 38 games, 5 points behind Deportivo Armenio, 4 points clear of Deportivo Laferrere.
Form. CD Armenio have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. Club Comunicaciones have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W D W.
The numbers. CD Armenio score 0.8 and concede 0.2 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. CD Armenio average 4.3 corners and 2.5 cards a game. Club Comunicaciones score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Club Comunicaciones average 4.5 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
The case against. Club Comunicaciones's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. CD Armenio to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make CD Armenio the likelier winners; CD Armenio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Armenio. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 13%.
The bets. Best bet: CD Armenio or Draw at 1.23, 74% on the records (CD Armenio unbeaten in 4 of 5 at home; Club Comunicaciones failed to win 4 of 5 away). The safer one: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.17 (76%). Backup: CD Armenio or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.16. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: CD Armenio Over 0.5 goals (Club Comunicaciones's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CD Armenio 1-0 Club Comunicaciones (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).