Match details. Southern League Premier South, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Chertsey Town are 7th on 14 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Frome Town, 1 point clear of Taunton Town. A win would take them above Frome Town. Chippenham Town are 20th on 7 points after 8 games, level on points with Gloucester City, 2 points clear of Havant & Wville. A win would take them above Gloucester City.
Form. Chertsey Town have won four, drawn two and lost three of their last nine, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L L. In this competition Chertsey Town have gone L D W L L W. Chippenham Town have won two, drawn one and lost five of their last eight, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L. In this competition Chippenham Town have gone L L W L L W.
The numbers. Chertsey Town score 2.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Chippenham Town score 0.4 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 19 Oct 2013, it finished Chertsey Town 0-3 Chippenham Town.
The case against. Chippenham Town's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Chertsey Town to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Chertsey Town the likelier winners; Chertsey Town are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Chertsey Town. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Chertsey Town or Both Teams Score (the signs point different ways); Chertsey Town Win & Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Chertsey Town 2-1 Chippenham Town (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).