Quorn FC vs Workington AFC
Match details. Northern Premier League Premier, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Quorn FC are 18th on 10 points after 11 games, level on points with Leek Town, level on points with AFC Emley. A win would take them above Leek Town. Workington AFC are 5th on 21 points after 12 games, 1 point behind Guiseley AFC, 1 point clear of Rylands. A win would take them above Guiseley AFC.
Form. Quorn FC have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W L. In this competition Quorn FC have gone D W L W L D. Workington AFC have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D W W W. In this competition Workington AFC have gone D D W W W W.
The numbers. Quorn FC score 1.6 and concede 3.2 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Workington AFC score 2.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet.
The read. Workington AFC to win. An open game. Workington AFC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Workington AFC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 87%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.16, 79% on the records (Quorn FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Workington AFC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Leave: Workington AFC or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Quorn FC Under 1.5 goals (Quorn FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Quorn FC 1-2 Workington AFC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).