Match details. Northern Premier League Premier, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Avro FC are 2nd on 25 points after 10 games, 2 points behind Cleethorpes Town, level on points with Redcar Athletic. A win would take them above Cleethorpes Town. Guiseley FC are 4th on 22 points after 11 games, 3 points behind Redcar Athletic, 1 point clear of Workington. A win would take them level on points with Redcar Athletic.
Form. Avro FC have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. In this competition Avro FC have gone W W W W D W. Guiseley FC have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W L. In this competition Guiseley FC have gone W L W W L W.
The numbers. Avro FC score four and concede 2.4 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Avro FC average 15.8 shots (7.2 on target), 6.2 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Guiseley FC score two and concede 0.7 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 3 Sep 2022, it finished Avro FC 1-2 Guiseley FC.
The case against. Guiseley FC's record still gives them 36% to win.
The read. Avro FC to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Avro FC the likelier winners; Avro FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Avro FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.20, 80% on the records (Avro FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Guiseley FC: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 away). Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Avro FC Over 0.5 Goals (Guiseley FC's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Avro FC 2-1 Guiseley FC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).