Match details. National League South, National League South - 11. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Weston-super-Mare are 6th on 17 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Billericay Town, level on points with Farnham Town. A win would take them above Billericay Town. Folkestone Invicta are 15th on 12 points after 10 games, level on points with Ebbsfleet United, 1 point clear of Chelmsford City. A win would take them above Ebbsfleet United.
Form. Weston-super-Mare have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D W W. Folkestone Invicta have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L D.
The numbers. Weston-super-Mare score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Weston-super-Mare average 8.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game. Folkestone Invicta score 1.2 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Folkestone Invicta average 4.8 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The case against. Folkestone Invicta's record still gives them 29% to win.
The read. Weston-super-Mare to win. Their goals for and against make Weston-super-Mare the likelier winners; Weston-super-Mare are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Weston-super-Mare.
The bets. Best bet: Weston-super-Mare or Draw at 1.28, 75% on the records (Weston-super-Mare unbeaten in 5 of 8; Folkestone Invicta failed to win 4 of 5 away). Backup: Weston-super-Mare or Under 2.5 Goals at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Weston-super-Mare are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Weston-super-Mare are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Weston-super-Mare 1-0 Folkestone Invicta (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).