Match details. National League South, National League South - 11. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at The Meadow, Chesham.
What's at stake. Chesham United are 19th on 10 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Farnborough, level on points with AFC Totton. A win would take them above Farnborough. Chelmsford City are 16th on 11 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Folkestone Invicta, level on points with Horsham. A win would take them above Folkestone Invicta.
Form. Chesham United have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W L. Chelmsford City have won three, drawn seven and lost none of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D D.
The numbers. Chesham United score 2.7 and concede 2.2 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet. Chesham United average 5.5 corners and 0.5 cards a game. Chelmsford City score 1.5 and concede one a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Chelmsford City average 8.3 shots (4.3 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Chesham United have won none, drawn two and lost two. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 18 Apr 2026, it finished Chesham United 0-2 Chelmsford City.
The read. Chelmsford City to win. A tight game. Chelmsford City are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Chelmsford City. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.46, 73% on the records (Chesham United: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 8; Chelmsford City: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Chelmsford City or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Chesham United 0-1 Chelmsford City (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).