Billericay Town vs Farnborough FC
Match details. National League South, National League South - 11. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Billericay Town are 5th on 18 points after 10 games, level on points with Truro City, 1 point clear of Weston-super-Mare. A win would take them above Truro City. Farnborough FC are 18th on 11 points after 9 games, level on points with Horsham, 1 point clear of Chesham United. A win would take them above Horsham.
Form. Billericay Town have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W D. In this competition Billericay Town have gone W W D W D L. Farnborough FC have won three, drawn two and lost four of their last nine, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W. In this competition Farnborough FC have gone D L L L W D.
The numbers. Billericay Town score 2.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Farnborough FC score 1.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Farnborough FC average 13.0 shots (2.7 on target), 8.3 corners and 1.3 cards a game.
The case against. Farnborough FC's record still gives them 22% to win.
The read. Billericay Town to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Billericay Town the likelier winners; Billericay Town are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Billericay Town or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (Billericay Town are a clear winner, no Unders); Farnborough FC Under 1.5 goals (Farnborough FC's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Billericay Town 2-1 Farnborough FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).