Worksop Town vs Morecambe FC

Match details. National League North, National League North - 11. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sandy Lane Stadium, Worksop.

What's at stake. Worksop Town are 18th on 12 points after 10 games, level on points with Harborough Town, level on points with Brackley Town. A win would take them above Harborough Town. Morecambe FC are 11th on 14 points after 10 games, 2 points behind Bedford Town, level on points with Chorley. A win would take them above Bedford Town.

Form. Worksop Town have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D W. Morecambe FC have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L.

The numbers. Worksop Town score 0.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Worksop Town average 3.6 corners and 2.4 cards a game. Morecambe FC score 1.8 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. Morecambe FC average 4.3 corners and 2.6 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.

The case against. Worksop Town's record still gives them 33% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.

The read. Morecambe FC to win. A tight game. Morecambe FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Morecambe FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.42, 73% on the records (Worksop Town: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 7; Morecambe FC: under 3.5 goals in 7 of 8). Backup: Under 2.5 first-half goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Worksop Town 0-1 Morecambe FC (9% chance).