Match details. Ykkonen. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time.
Form. PK Keski-Uusimaa have won three, drawn four and lost none of their last seven league games, 1.9 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W D D W D. SalPa have won three, drawn one and lost three of their last seven league games, 1.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W L D W.
The numbers. PK Keski-Uusimaa score 1.7 and concede 1.1 a game over their last seven, with four clean sheets. PK Keski-Uusimaa average 4.9 corners and 1.8 cards a game. SalPa score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game over their last seven, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. SalPa average 5.6 corners and 1.6 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: PK Keski-Uusimaa 2-1 SalPa (8% chance).
The agreed story. No side to back (SalPa the favourite), an open game.
The league run. PK Keski-Uusimaa: one defeat in their last five league games (L W D D D). SalPa: coming out of a defeat with two wins (W W W L D).
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).