Match details. Liga DIMAYOR, Clausura - 9. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 00:05 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin.
What's at stake. Atletico Nacional are 4th on 22 points after 10 games, 1 point behind Bucaramanga, level on points with Santa Fe. A win would take them above Bucaramanga. CD Tolima are 8th on 19 points after 12 games, 1 point behind Independiente Medellin, 4 points clear of Cucuta. A win would take them above Independiente Medellin.
Form. Atletico Nacional have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W W. In this competition Atletico Nacional have gone W D L W W W. CD Tolima have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D L L. In this competition CD Tolima have gone D D D L L W.
The numbers. Atletico Nacional score 2.1 and concede one a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Atletico Nacional average 16.6 shots (6.4 on target), 6.2 corners and 3.2 cards a game, with 64% of the ball. CD Tolima score 1.1 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. CD Tolima average 15.4 shots (4.5 on target), 6.2 corners and 3.5 cards a game, with 59% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Atletico Nacional have won five, drawn two and lost three. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Atletico Nacional won two, one was drawn and CD Tolima won one. The last time they met, on 23 May 2026, it finished Atletico Nacional 3-1 CD Tolima: Atletico Nacional had 23 shots to 14, 43% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The case against. CD Tolima's record still gives them 23% to win.
The read. Atletico Nacional to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Atletico Nacional the likelier winners; Atletico Nacional are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Atletico Nacional; the meetings favour Atletico Nacional. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%. Six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Atletico Nacional 1UP at 1.35, 80% on the records (Atletico Nacional scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4; led in 4 of 5 at home). Leave: Atletico Nacional or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); CD Tolima Under 1.5 goals (CD Tolima's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Atletico Nacional or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Atletico Nacional 1-0 CD Tolima (12% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Atletico Nacional or Draw (1UP)IN CODES
1.13
ATL 5 of 5 (100%) · CDT 5 of 5 (100%)100%
Atletico Nacional scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 5 · led or was unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home · CD Tolima trailed or failed to win in 5 of 5 away
Atletico Nacional or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
1.14
ATL 10 of 10 (100%) · CDT 6 of 10 (60%)85%
Atletico Nacional: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Tolima: the bet landed in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · H2H 6 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Atletico Nacional 1UPMAININ CODES
1.35
ATL 4 of 5 (80%) · CDT 4 of 5 (80%)80%
Atletico Nacional scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 4 of 5 at home · CD Tolima trailed in 4 of 5 away
Double Chance: Atletico Nacional or DrawIN CODES
1.17
ATL 8 of 10 (80%) · CDT 7 of 10 (70%)79.6%
Atletico Nacional unbeaten in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Tolima failed to win 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Atletico Nacional or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES
1.14
ATL 8 of 10 (80%) · CDT 8 of 10 (80%)76.7%
Atletico Nacional: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Tolima: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · H2H 4 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
1X2 - 2UP: Atletico NacionalPAGE ONLY
1.58
ATL 4 of 5 (80%) · CDT 4 of 5 (80%)73.3%
Atletico Nacional scored first 4 of last 5, led by 2 or won in 4 · led by 2 or won in 4 of 5 at home · CD Tolima trailed by 2 or lost in 3 of 5 away
Atletico Nacional (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY
1.26
ATL 7 of 9 (78%) · CDT 3 of 6 (50%)72.7%
Atletico Nacional won 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · CD Tolima lost 3 of 6 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 64% · H2H 4 of 5 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level · won 5, refunded 2, lost 1
Atletico Nacional to WinLEANPAGE ONLY
1.64
ATL 7 of 10 (70%) · CDT 3 of 10 (30%)54.2%
Atletico Nacional won 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Tolima lost 3 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 50% · H2H 4 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
GOALS
Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ATL 9 of 10 (90%) · CDT 10 of 10 (100%)94.9%
Atletico Nacional: under 5.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Tolima: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · H2H 5 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Under 4.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ATL 8 of 10 (80%) · CDT 9 of 10 (90%)87.4%
Atletico Nacional: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Tolima: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · H2H 5 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
BOTH TEAMS SCORE
Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY
1.76
ATL 6 of 10 (60%) · CDT 6 of 10 (60%)50.3%
Atletico Nacional: both scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Tolima: both scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 60% · H2H 2 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
ATLETICO NACIONAL GOALS
Atletico Nacional Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.15
ATL 8 of 10 (80%) · CDT 8 of 10 (80%)81.4%
Atletico Nacional scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Tolima conceded in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · H2H 4 of 6 · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
CD TOLIMA GOALS
CD Tolima Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.53
ATL 6 of 10 (60%) · CDT 8 of 10 (80%)61%
CD Tolima scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Atletico Nacional conceded in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70% · H2H 3 of 6 · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level
CARDS
Over 3.5 CardsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ATL 6 of 8 (75%) · CDT 6 of 8 (75%)75%
Atletico Nacional's games: over 3.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · CD Tolima's games: over 3.5 cards in 6 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · Atletico Nacional: only games against sides at CD Tolima's level · CD Tolima: only games against sides at Atletico Nacional's level
Left off the list: Atletico Nacional or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); CD Tolima Under 1.5 goals (CD Tolima's own games don't back it (5 of 10)); Atletico Nacional or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Atletico Nacional Over 1.5 goals (CD Tolima's own games don't back it (2 of 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–011.5%
Atletico Nacional goals →
CD Tolima goals ↓
0-08%
1-012%
2-010%
3-06%
4-02%
5-00.8%
0-16%
1-112%
2-110%
3-15%
4-12%
5-10.8%
0-23%
1-25%
2-25%
3-23%
4-21%
5-20.4%
0-31%
1-32%
2-31%
3-30.8%
4-30.3%
5-30.1%
0-40.2%
1-40.4%
2-40.3%
3-40.2%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.0%
1-50.1%
2-50.1%
3-50.0%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).
FORM · LAST 10
ATLETICO NACIONALWLWWWWWLDW2.20 PPG
CD TOLIMALWDWWLLDDD1.30 PPG
THE NUMBERS
ATLETICO NACIONAL HOMExCD TOLIMA AWAY
2.10SCORED A GAME1.101.00CONCEDED A GAME1.1020%CLEAN SHEETS20%26%FAILED TO SCORE29%6.25CORNERS A GAME6.253.25CARDS A GAME3.501.53xG1.210.64xG AGAINST0.58
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
543 OF 573
NO PRICE YET
Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
2.11POINTS A GAME1.89+0.89GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.33+8.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+5.42.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.69LEAGUE GAMES9
No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
91%
VERY GOOD · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
71%
OKAY · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
81%
NO · 85/90
ATLETICO NACIONAL OR DRAW
79%
NO · 80/85
CD TOLIMA OR DRAW
51%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
ATLETICO NACIONALxCD TOLIMA
5GAMES51.80SCORED A GAME1.401.20CONCEDED A GAME1.203.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.6100%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES6.8–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.6
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10
ATLETICO NACIONAL 5 · 50%DRAW 2CD TOLIMA 3 · 30%
5 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED
6 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS
4 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS
4 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS
2023-11-09Atletico Nacional 2 – 3 CD Tolima
2024-04-28Atletico Nacional 3 – 1 CD Tolima
2024-11-15Atletico Nacional 0 – 1 CD Tolima
2024-12-19Atletico Nacional 1 – 1 CD Tolima
2024-12-22Atletico Nacional 2 – 0 CD Tolima
2025-03-20Atletico Nacional 4 – 3 CD Tolima
2025-08-02Atletico Nacional 0 – 0 CD Tolima
2026-03-02Atletico Nacional 0 – 1 CD Tolima
TRENDS
Atletico Nacional have scored in 80% of their games.
CD Tolima have scored in 50% of their games.
Atletico Nacional kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
CD Tolima kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards