SE Palmeiras SP vs EC Bahia BA
Match details. Brasileiro Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 01:30 Lagos time. It is played at Nubank Parque, Sao Paulo. The referee is Braulio da Silva Machado.
What's at stake. SE Palmeiras SP are 2nd on 57 points after 28 games, 3 points behind Flamengo, 8 points clear of Atletico Paranaense. A win would take them level on points with Flamengo. EC Bahia BA are 6th on 46 points after 28 games, 2 points behind Fluminense, 3 points clear of Atletico-MG. A win would take them above Fluminense.
Team news. SE Palmeiras SP are without Jefte (knee injury), Paulinho (muscle injury), Jefte (knee injury), Paulinho (muscle injury). EC Bahia BA are without Leo Vieira (knee injury), Michel Araujo (hamstring injury), Leo Vieira (knee injury), Michel Araujo (hamstring injury).
Form. SE Palmeiras SP have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D D W. In this competition SE Palmeiras SP have gone D W D D W L. EC Bahia BA have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. In this competition EC Bahia BA have gone L W W W W D.
The numbers. SE Palmeiras SP score 1.7 and concede 0.8 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and three games without a goal. SE Palmeiras SP average 18.4 shots (5.6 on target), 5.9 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 59% of the ball. EC Bahia BA score 1.7 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. EC Bahia BA average 14.9 shots (4.8 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings SE Palmeiras SP have won six, drawn one and lost three. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, SE Palmeiras SP won two and EC Bahia BA won two. The last time they met, on 5 Apr 2026, it finished SE Palmeiras SP 2-1 EC Bahia BA: SE Palmeiras SP had 8 shots to 19, 41% of the ball, six yellow cards.
The read. A draw. A tight game. Little separates them, and both sides draw often. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%. Six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.48, 72% on the records (SE Palmeiras SP: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 10; EC Bahia BA: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 6 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: SE Palmeiras SP 1-1 EC Bahia BA (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).