Everton vs Chelsea
Match details. Everton host Chelsea in the Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 Lagos time at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool, Merseyside.
What's at stake. Everton are 5th on 10 points after six games, level on points with Brentford and Chelsea. A win would take them above Brentford. Chelsea are 6th on 10 points after six games, level on points with Everton and 1 point clear of Leeds. A win would take them above Everton.
Form. Everton have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, taking 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D D. Chelsea have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, taking 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L.
The numbers. Everton score 1.4 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Everton average 14.1 shots (4.6 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 47% of the ball. Chelsea score 2.6 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. Chelsea average 12.3 shots (5.0 on target), 5.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Everton have won three, drawn three and lost four. Three of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, Everton won one, one was drawn and Chelsea won two. The last time they met, on 21 Mar 2026, it finished Everton 3-0 Chelsea: Everton had 10 shots to 12, 36% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%. Seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Everton's record still gives them 31% to win. Not everything agrees on goals, as seven of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Chelsea or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side, as their goals for and against point to an open game and their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Everton 1-2 Chelsea (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).