Match details. Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Fri 16 Oct, 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at MMArena, Le Mans. The referee is Aurelien Petit.
What's at stake. Le Mans FC are 14th on 6 points after 6 games, level on points with Marseille, level on points with Toulouse. A win would take them above Marseille. Toulouse are 15th on 6 points after 6 games, level on points with Le Mans, level on points with Auxerre. A win would take them above Le Mans.
Form. Le Mans FC have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D L. Toulouse have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L D.
The numbers. Le Mans FC score 1.6 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Le Mans FC average 8.1 shots (3.7 on target), 2.8 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 43% of the ball. Toulouse score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Toulouse average 11.9 shots (4.5 on target), 4.5 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Toulouse or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Le Mans FC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 80%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.22, 75% on the records (Le Mans FC: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 6; Toulouse: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.21. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Le Mans FC 1-2 Toulouse (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).