Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 2 - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Naxara CD are 17th on 1 point after 4 games, 1 point behind SD Logroñés, 1 point clear of Arnedo. A win would take them above SD Logroñés. Pena Sport FC are 10th on 7 points after 5 games, level on points with Terrassa, 1 point clear of Barbastro. A win would take them above Terrassa.
Form. Naxara CD have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L L. Pena Sport FC have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D.
The numbers. Naxara CD score one and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Naxara CD average 7.0 shots (2.7 on target), 4.7 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Pena Sport FC score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Pena Sport FC average 3.0 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Head to head. Naxara CD have won all of the last two meetings. One of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 20 Feb 2022, it finished Naxara CD 3-2 Pena Sport FC.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Pena Sport FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Pena Sport FC Over 0.5 Goals (Naxara CD's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Pena Sport FC or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Naxara CD 1-1 Pena Sport FC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).