Atletico Astorga FC vs Ourense CF
Match details. Segunda Federacion, Group 1 - 6. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. Atletico Astorga FC are 16th on 3 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Llanera, level on points with Arosa. A win would take them above Llanera. Ourense CF are 5th on 10 points after 5 games, 2 points behind Sestao River, 2 points clear of Gernika. A win would take them above Sestao River.
Form. Atletico Astorga FC have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L. Ourense CF have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W W.
The numbers. Atletico Astorga FC score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets and three games without a goal. Atletico Astorga FC average 11.4 shots (3.4 on target), 3.9 corners and 3.1 cards a game. Ourense CF score 1.2 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and three games without a goal. Ourense CF average 7.4 shots (2.7 on target), 3.9 corners and 3.1 cards a game.
The case against. Atletico Astorga FC's record still gives them 24% to win.
The read. Ourense CF to win. A tight game. Ourense CF are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Ourense CF. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 28%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Ourense CF or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Ourense CF or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Ourense CF Over 0.5 Goals (Atletico Astorga FC's own games don't back it (3 of 6)). Predicted score: Atletico Astorga FC 0-1 Ourense CF (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).