USA vs Canada

Match details. It's an international friendly at Allianz Field on Wed 7 Oct, 01:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It's a friendly, so no points ride on it.

Form. USA have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W. Canada have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W D.

The numbers. USA score two and concede 1.4 a game at home in their last eight, with two clean sheets. They average 11.5 shots (4.1 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game, holding 53% of the ball. Canada score 2.1 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. They average 12.4 shots (4.8 on target), 8.0 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 59% of the ball.

Head to head. In their last seven meetings USA have won three, drawn one and lost three. Two of those seven went over 2.5 goals and both sides scored in three. In the last four encounters USA won one, one was drawn and Canada won two. The most recent clash on 22 Mar 2025 ended USA 1-2 Canada, with USA having five shots to eight, 60% possession and four yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. Their goals for and against point to a tight game and their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%. Five of the last seven meetings went under 2.5.

The case against. Canada's record still gives them 37% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: five of the last seven meetings went under 2.5.

The read. USA to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make USA the likelier winners; both teams' records favour USA. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (USA are a clear winner, no Unders); USA Over 1.5 goals (Canada's own games don't back it (2 of 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (USA are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: USA 2-1 Canada (9% chance).