Leeds United vs Man Utd
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Elland Road, Leeds. The referee is Darren England.
What's at stake. Leeds United are 8th on 9 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Everton, level on points with Hull City. A win would take them above Everton. Man Utd are 14th on 6 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Crystal Palace, level on points with Coventry. A win would take them above Crystal Palace.
Team news. Leeds United are without M. Joseph (knee injury), J. Rodon (muscle injury), D. James (back injury), M. Joseph (knee injury), J. Rodon (muscle injury), D. James (back injury). Man Utd are without P. Dorgu (hamstring injury), T. Heaton (abdominal strain), B. Sesko (leg injury), M. Ugarte (knee injury), K. Mainoo (injury), N. Mazraoui (injury).
Form. Leeds United have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W L D. Man Utd have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D L L.
The numbers. Leeds United score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Leeds United average 9.5 shots (3.4 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 44% of the ball. Man Utd score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Man Utd average 16.3 shots (5.8 on target), 5.9 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings Leeds United have won one, drawn three and lost three. Four of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Leeds United won one, two were drawn and Man Utd won one. The last time they met, on 13 Apr 2026, it finished Leeds United 2-1 Man Utd: Leeds United had 15 shots to 20, 47% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%; four of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Man Utd's record still gives them 33% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: four of the last seven meetings went over 2.5.
The read. Leeds United or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Leeds United or draw and under 3.5 goals (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Leeds United 1-1 Man Utd (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).