Bournemouth vs Sunderland AFC
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lagos time. It is played at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. The referee is Craig Pawson.
What's at stake. Bournemouth are 19th on 3 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Sunderland, level on points with Tottenham. A win would take them above Sunderland. Sunderland AFC are 18th on 4 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Nottingham Forest, 1 point clear of Bournemouth. A win would take them above Nottingham Forest.
Team news. Bournemouth are without J. Araujo (thigh injury), E. J. Kroupi (foot injury), A. Scott (thigh injury), V. Milosavljevic (injury), J. Araujo (thigh injury), E. J. Kroupi (foot injury). Sunderland AFC are without D. Ballard (muscle injury), T. Meunier (muscle injury), R. Mundle (knee injury), W. Isidor (injury), D. Ballard (muscle injury), T. Meunier (muscle injury).
Form. Bournemouth have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W D. Sunderland AFC have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W L.
The numbers. Bournemouth score two and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Bournemouth average 14.6 shots (5.3 on target), 5.1 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Sunderland AFC score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Sunderland AFC average 11.9 shots (3.8 on target), 6.1 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Bournemouth have won two, drawn two and lost two. Two of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Bournemouth won one, one was drawn and Sunderland AFC won two. The last time they met, on 28 Feb 2026, it finished Bournemouth 1-1 Sunderland AFC: Bournemouth had 21 shots to 8, 62% of the ball, six yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Bournemouth the likelier winners, but the meetings favour Sunderland AFC. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%; four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Sunderland AFC's record still gives them 35% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%. Not everything agrees on goals: four of the last six meetings went under 2.5.
The read. Bournemouth or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bournemouth the likelier winners; the meetings favour Sunderland AFC. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Bournemouth 2-1 Sunderland AFC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).