Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Match details. Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time. It is played at St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne. The referee is Jarred Gillett.
What's at stake. Newcastle are 11th on 8 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Ipswich, 1 point clear of Crystal Palace. A win would take them above Ipswich. Aston Villa are 16th on 5 points after 6 games, level on points with Nottingham Forest, 1 point clear of Sunderland. A win would take them above Nottingham Forest.
Team news. Newcastle are without A. Elanga (knee injury), E. Jaouen (muscle injury), V. Livramento (injury), J. Ramsey (injury), B. Toure (injury), A. Elanga (knee injury). Aston Villa are without G. Hemmings (knee injury), I. Maatsen (ankle injury), A. Onana (knee injury), M. Ruggeri (injury), R. Barkley (injury), I. Mbaye (injury).
Form. Newcastle have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W D. Aston Villa have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W L.
The numbers. Newcastle score 2.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Newcastle average 11.9 shots (4.4 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Aston Villa score 1.7 and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Aston Villa average 13.3 shots (5.7 on target), 2.8 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Newcastle have won five, drawn two and lost three. Eight of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Newcastle won one, one was drawn and Aston Villa won two. The last time they met, on 14 Feb 2026, it finished Newcastle 3-1 Aston Villa: Newcastle had 12 shots to 8, 57% of the ball, five yellow cards.
The case against. Aston Villa's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Newcastle or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%. Eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.18, 78% on the records (Newcastle: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 8; Aston Villa: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Newcastle or Draw & Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Newcastle 2-1 Aston Villa (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).