Pazarspor vs Erbaaspor
Match details. Turkiye Kupasi. Kick-off is Wed 7 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time.
Form. Pazarspor have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W D. Erbaaspor have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L D.
The numbers. Pazarspor score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Erbaaspor score 1.4 and concede 2.2 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Erbaaspor average 7.2 shots (4.0 on target), 2.6 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 31% against the records' 62%.
The read. No firm call: Pazarspor are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Pazarspor the likelier winners; Pazarspor are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Pazarspor. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.19, 73% on the records (Pazarspor: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 6 at home; Erbaaspor: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Pazarspor or Over 2.5 Goals at 1.38. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Pazarspor 2-1 Erbaaspor (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).