Gainare Tottori vs Tokyo Verdy
Match details. Emperor Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 7 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Axis Bird Stadium, Tottori.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Gainare Tottori have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W. Tokyo Verdy have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L D W D.
The numbers. Gainare Tottori score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Gainare Tottori average 8.8 shots (3.9 on target), 2.5 corners and 1.1 cards a game. Tokyo Verdy score 0.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Tokyo Verdy average 9.7 shots (3.5 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.9 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 16% against the records' 45%.
The read. No firm call: Gainare Tottori are the better side, but not at this price. Gainare Tottori are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Gainare Tottori.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Gainare Tottori Over 0.5 goals (Tokyo Verdy's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Gainare Tottori 1-1 Tokyo Verdy (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).