FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare
Match details. Emperor Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 7 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. FC Tokyo have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. Shonan Bellmare have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W D.
The numbers. FC Tokyo score 2.4 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. FC Tokyo average 13.7 shots (4.6 on target) and 1.8 cards a game. Shonan Bellmare score 1.5 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Shonan Bellmare average 9.1 shots (2.7 on target) and 1.3 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 64% against the records' 40%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The read. No firm call: FC Tokyo are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make FC Tokyo the likelier winners; FC Tokyo are the stronger side on form and the table.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Shonan Bellmare Under 1.5 goals (Shonan Bellmare's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); FC Tokyo Over 1.5 goals (Shonan Bellmare's own games don't back it (2 of 6)). Predicted score: FC Tokyo 1-0 Shonan Bellmare (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).