COCER

10:30Wed 7 Oct

KAG

Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. Emperor Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 7 Oct, 10:30 Lagos time. It is played at Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Cerezo Osaka have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D W. Kagoshima United have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W W W.

The numbers. Cerezo Osaka score 1.6 and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Cerezo Osaka average 10.7 shots (3.9 on target), 1.0 corners and 1.2 cards a game. Kagoshima United score 2.1 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Kagoshima United average 13.8 shots (5.1 on target), 3.0 corners and 1.7 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.

The case against. Cerezo Osaka's record still gives them 40% to win.

The read. Kagoshima United or the draw. Kagoshima United are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Kagoshima United Over 0.5 goals (Cerezo Osaka's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Cerezo Osaka Under 1.5 goals (Cerezo Osaka's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Kagoshima United (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Kagoshima United win or both teams scoreLEANPAGE ONLY

1.59

CER 8 of 10 (80%) · KAG 2 of 5 (40%)69.4%

Kagoshima United: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Cerezo Osaka: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 75%

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.13

CER 5 of 5 (100%) · KAG 8 of 10 (80%)89.8%

Cerezo Osaka: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Kagoshima United: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85%

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.28

CER 3 of 5 (60%) · KAG 8 of 10 (80%)75.2%

Cerezo Osaka: over 1.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Kagoshima United: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.87

CER 2 of 5 (40%) · KAG 7 of 10 (70%)55.9%

Cerezo Osaka: both scored in 2 of 5 at home · Kagoshima United: both scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 60%

CEREZO OSAKA GOALS

Cerezo Osaka Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.15

CER 4 of 5 (80%) · KAG 8 of 10 (80%)74.8%

Cerezo Osaka scored in 4 of 5 at home · Kagoshima United conceded in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

Left off the list: Kagoshima United Over 0.5 goals (Cerezo Osaka's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Cerezo Osaka Under 1.5 goals (Cerezo Osaka's own games don't back it (2 of 5))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.3%

Cerezo Osaka goals →

Kagoshima United goals ↓

0-08%

1-09%

2-06%

3-03%

4-00.9%

5-00.2%

0-19%

1-113%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.3%

0-26%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.7%

5-20.2%

0-33%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.9%

1-41%

2-40.7%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

CEREZO OSAKAWDLDWLWWLW1.70 PPG

KAGOSHIMA UNITEDWDWWWLWWDW2.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CEREZO OSAKA HOMExKAGOSHIMA UNITED AWAY

1.20SCORED A GAME2.101.40CONCEDED A GAME1.1030%CLEAN SHEETS20%1.00CORNERS A GAME3.001.20CARDS A GAME1.70

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.38POINTS A GAME2.50-0.62GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.00+2.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+3.21.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.68LEAGUE GAMES8

Kagoshima United: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

KAGOSHIMA UNITED 0:2 HANDICAP

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373 OF 433

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

76%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

57%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

82%

NO · 85/90

CEREZO OSAKA OR DRAW

68%

NO · 80/85

KAGOSHIMA UNITED OR DRAW

66%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CEREZO OSAKAxKAGOSHIMA UNITED

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME2.201.60CONCEDED A GAME1.202.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.460%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%20%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%40%BOTH SCORE100%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES2.8–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES13.6

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Cerezo Osaka have scored in 70% of their games.

Kagoshima United have scored in 80% of their games.

Cerezo Osaka kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Kagoshima United kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards