AFAVI

10:30Wed 7 Oct

YOK

Avispa Fukuoka vs Yokohama FC

CLASS D

THE READ

Match details. Emperor Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 7 Oct, 10:30 Lagos time. It is played at Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Avispa Fukuoka have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L D L. Yokohama FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W L.

The numbers. Avispa Fukuoka score one and concede one a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Avispa Fukuoka average 10.1 shots (4.1 on target), 7.0 corners and 1.9 cards a game. Yokohama FC score 1.7 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Yokohama FC average 10.0 shots (5.1 on target) and 1.1 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Avispa Fukuoka the likelier winners, but Yokohama FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Yokohama FC.

The case against. Avispa Fukuoka's record still gives them 22% to win.

The read. Yokohama FC or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Avispa Fukuoka the likelier winners; Yokohama FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Yokohama FC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Avispa Fukuoka Over 0.5 goals (Avispa Fukuoka's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Avispa Fukuoka Under 1.5 goals (Yokohama FC's own games don't back it (2 of 6)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Yokohama FC (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Yokohama FC win or both teams scoreLEANIN CODES

1.49

AVI 4 of 6 (67%) · YOK 4 of 6 (67%)68.5%

Yokohama FC: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · Avispa Fukuoka: the bet landed in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 80%

YOKOHAMA FC GOALS

Yokohama FC Over 0.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.59

AVI 4 of 6 (67%) · YOK 4 of 6 (67%)64.8%

Yokohama FC scored in 4 of 6 away · Avispa Fukuoka conceded in 4 of 6 at home · both last 10: 80%

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.62

AVI 3 of 6 (50%) · YOK 4 of 6 (67%)60.6%

Avispa Fukuoka: the bet landed in 3 of 6 at home · Yokohama FC: the bet landed in 4 of 6 away · both last 10: 65% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Avispa Fukuoka Over 0.5 goals (Avispa Fukuoka's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Avispa Fukuoka Under 1.5 goals (Yokohama FC's own games don't back it (2 of 6)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13%

Avispa Fukuoka goals →

Yokohama FC goals ↓

0-08%

1-010%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.5%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21.0%

5-20.3%

0-32%

1-32%

2-32%

3-30.9%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.7%

2-40.5%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

AVISPA FUKUOKADLLDLLDLWL0.60 PPG

YOKOHAMA FCWWDWLWWDWL2.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AVISPA FUKUOKA HOMExYOKOHAMA FC AWAY

1.00SCORED A GAME2.201.30CONCEDED A GAME1.4020%CLEAN SHEETS20%7.00CORNERS A GAME0.001.90CARDS A GAME1.10

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

0.50POINTS A GAME1.89-0.38GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.78-0.5SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.80.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.08LEAGUE GAMES9

Yokohama FC: the quality side - more points a game, a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

YOKOHAMA FC 0:2 HANDICAP

–

373 OF 433

NO PRICE YET

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

78%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

53%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

74%

NO · 85/90

AVISPA FUKUOKA OR DRAW

48%

NO · 80/85

YOKOHAMA FC OR DRAW

71%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

AVISPA FUKUOKAxYOKOHAMA FC

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.201.20CONCEDED A GAME1.402.4GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.660%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS20%40%BOTH SCORE20%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Avispa Fukuoka have scored in 60% of their games.

Yokohama FC have scored in 80% of their games.

Avispa Fukuoka kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Yokohama FC kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards