US Avellino vs Sampdoria Genoa
Match details. Serie B, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is Fri 9 Oct, 19:30 Lagos time. It is played at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino. The referee is Juan Luca Sacchi.
What's at stake. US Avellino are 9th on 7 points after 5 games, level on points with Hellas Verona, level on points with Cesena. A win would take them above Hellas Verona. Sampdoria Genoa are 17th on 4 points after 5 games, 1 point behind Vicenza Virtus, 1 point clear of Catanzaro. A win would take them above Vicenza Virtus.
Form. US Avellino have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W L. Sampdoria Genoa have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L L D.
The numbers. US Avellino score 1.6 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. US Avellino average 9.5 shots (4.0 on target), 3.5 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 45% of the ball. Sampdoria Genoa score 0.3 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Sampdoria Genoa average 11.5 shots (4.8 on target), 5.8 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 51% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last two meetings US Avellino have won one, drawn none and lost one. Two of the two went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 22 Mar 2026, it finished US Avellino 1-2 Sampdoria Genoa: US Avellino had 3 shots to 10, 53% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
The read. US Avellino to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make US Avellino the likelier winners; US Avellino are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour US Avellino. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 35%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.29, 74% on the records (US Avellino: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; Sampdoria Genoa: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Sampdoria Genoa or Under 2.5 Goals (the call backs US Avellino); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: US Avellino 1-0 Sampdoria Genoa (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).