York City FC vs Northampton Town
Match details. League Two, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at York`s LNER Community Stadium.
What's at stake. York City FC are 6th on 14 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Bristol Rovers, level on points with Walsall. A win would take them above Bristol Rovers. Northampton Town are 22nd on 6 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Oldham, 1 point clear of Port Vale. A win would take them above Oldham.
Form. York City FC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L L W. Northampton Town have won one, drawn three and lost six of their last ten, 0.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L W D.
The numbers. York City FC score 2.3 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. York City FC average 9.7 shots (3.3 on target), 6.4 corners and 1.0 cards a game, with 63% of the ball. Northampton Town score 0.4 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Northampton Town average 5.6 shots (2.8 on target), 5.1 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings York City FC have won three, drawn two and lost three. Two of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, one was drawn and Northampton Town won three. The last time they met, on 23 Feb 2016, it finished York City FC 1-2 Northampton Town.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make York City FC the likelier winners, but York City FC are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Northampton Town. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 32%; six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. Northampton Town's record still gives them 27% to win. The meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. York City FC to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make York City FC the likelier winners; York City FC are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Northampton Town. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 32%. Six of the last eight meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (York City FC are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 4.5 Goals (York City FC are a clear winner, no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: York City FC 2-0 Northampton Town (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).