Match details. League Two, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent.
What's at stake. Port Vale are 23rd on 5 points after 7 games, 1 point behind Northampton, 1 point clear of Crawley Town. A win would take them above Northampton. Grimsby Town are 9th on 13 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Chesterfield, level on points with Gillingham. A win would take them above Chesterfield.
Form. Port Vale have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W L. Grimsby Town have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W.
The numbers. Port Vale score 0.6 and concede 1.3 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. Port Vale average 7.7 shots (2.8 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Grimsby Town score 1.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Grimsby Town average 6.1 shots (3.2 on target), 7.0 corners and 1.4 cards a game, with 56% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last eight meetings Port Vale have won one, drawn two and lost five. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Port Vale won one, one was drawn and Grimsby Town won two. The last time they met, on 21 Apr 2025, it finished Port Vale 2-2 Grimsby Town: Port Vale had 17 shots to 11, 60% of the ball, four yellow cards.
The read. Grimsby Town or the draw. A draw is live. A tight game. Both teams' records favour Grimsby Town; the meetings favour Grimsby Town. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.32, 76% on the records (Port Vale: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 7; Grimsby Town: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 8). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Grimsby Town or Under 2.5 Goals (no side to back); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Port Vale 1-1 Grimsby Town (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).