Match details. Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stade Yvan Georges, Virton.
What's at stake. Royal Excelsior Virton are 5th on 10 points after 5 games, 2 points behind Francs Borains, level on points with Lokeren-Temse. A win would take them above Francs Borains. Sporting Hasselt are 7th on 9 points after 6 games, 1 point behind Lokeren-Temse, 1 point clear of Club Brugge II. A win would take them above Lokeren-Temse.
Form. Royal Excelsior Virton have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W L W. Sporting Hasselt have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L L.
The numbers. Royal Excelsior Virton score two and concede 0.2 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. Royal Excelsior Virton average 11.0 shots (5.6 on target), 3.2 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 44% of the ball. Sporting Hasselt score 1.4 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Sporting Hasselt average 8.8 shots (4.2 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
The case against. Sporting Hasselt's record still gives them 35% to win.
The read. Royal Excelsior Virton to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Royal Excelsior Virton the likelier winners; Royal Excelsior Virton are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Royal Excelsior Virton. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%.
The bets. Best bet: Royal Excelsior Virton 1UP at 1.70, 70% on the records (Royal Excelsior Virton scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4; led in 4 of 5). Leave: Royal Excelsior Virton or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Royal Excelsior Virton or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); 1X2 - 2UP: Royal Excelsior Virton (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Royal Excelsior Virton 1-0 Sporting Hasselt (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).