AFARB

15:00Sat 10 Oct

GRE

Arbroath FC vs Greenock Morton FC

CLASS E

THE READ

Match details. Championship, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Gayfield Park, Arbroath. The referee is C. Stirling.

What's at stake. Arbroath FC are 7th on 11 points after 9 games, level on points with Ayr Utd, 1 point clear of Inverness CT. A win would take them above Ayr Utd. Greenock Morton FC are 10th on 1 point after 9 games, 3 points behind Queen's Park. A win would take them level on points with Queen's Park.

Form. Arbroath FC have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L L D. Greenock Morton FC have won none, drawn one and lost nine of their last ten, 0.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.

The numbers. Arbroath FC score one and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. Arbroath FC average 4.6 shots (2.0 on target), 3.2 corners and 1.7 cards a game. Greenock Morton FC score 0.5 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and five games without a goal. Greenock Morton FC average 6.0 shots (2.4 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Arbroath FC have won two, drawn three and lost five. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in seven. In the last four, Arbroath FC won one, one was drawn and Greenock Morton FC won two. The last time they met, on 22 Aug 2026, it finished Arbroath FC 2-1 Greenock Morton FC.

Where it pulls both ways. Arbroath FC are the form side, but the meetings favour Greenock Morton FC: in the last ten meetings, Arbroath FC won two, Greenock Morton FC won five and three were drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 46%; six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The read. No side to back. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side.

The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Arbroath FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Greenock Morton FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call). Predicted score: Arbroath FC 1-1 Greenock Morton FC (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.09

ARB 9 of 9 (100%) · GRE 8 of 9 (89%)88.5%

Arbroath FC: under 4.5 goals in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Greenock Morton FC: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · H2H 6 of 6 · Arbroath FC: only games against sides at Greenock Morton FC's level · Greenock Morton FC: only games against sides at Arbroath FC's level

Under 3.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.27

ARB 8 of 9 (89%) · GRE 8 of 9 (89%)74.8%

Arbroath FC: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Greenock Morton FC: under 3.5 goals in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 89% · H2H 6 of 6 · Arbroath FC: only games against sides at Greenock Morton FC's level · Greenock Morton FC: only games against sides at Arbroath FC's level

Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.71

ARB 5 of 9 (56%) · GRE 5 of 9 (56%)53.3%

Arbroath FC: under 2.5 goals in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Greenock Morton FC: under 2.5 goals in 5 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 56% · H2H 3 of 6 · Arbroath FC: only games against sides at Greenock Morton FC's level · Greenock Morton FC: only games against sides at Arbroath FC's level

HALVES

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.16

ARB 9 of 9 (100%) · GRE 8 of 9 (89%)91.7%

Arbroath FC: the bet landed in 9 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Greenock Morton FC: the bet landed in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 94% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Arbroath FC: only games against sides at Greenock Morton FC's level · Greenock Morton FC: only games against sides at Arbroath FC's level

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.36

ARB 6 of 9 (67%) · GRE 7 of 9 (78%)75%

Arbroath FC: the bet landed in 6 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · Greenock Morton FC: the bet landed in 7 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Arbroath FC: only games against sides at Greenock Morton FC's level · Greenock Morton FC: only games against sides at Arbroath FC's level

Left off the list: Arbroath FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); Greenock Morton FC or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13%

Arbroath FC goals →

Greenock Morton FC goals ↓

0-09%

1-011%

2-09%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.5%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.5%

0-24%

1-26%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.9%

5-20.3%

0-31%

1-32%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.4%

1-40.6%

2-40.4%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).

FORM · LAST 10

ARBROATH FCWLDWWDLLWL1.40 PPG

GREENOCK MORTON FCLLLLDLLLLL0.10 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ARBROATH FC HOMExGREENOCK MORTON FC AWAY

0.70SCORED A GAME0.501.30CONCEDED A GAME1.8030%CLEAN SHEETS0%56%FAILED TO SCORE44%3.22CORNERS A GAME3.671.67CARDS A GAME1.78

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.22POINTS A GAME0.11-0.78GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-1.33-8.7SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-3.00.8LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.09LEAGUE GAMES9

Arbroath FC: the quality side - more points a game, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

74%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

52%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

97%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

ARBROATH FC OR DRAW

93%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

GREENOCK MORTON FC OR DRAW

38%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

ARBROATH FCxGREENOCK MORTON FC

5GAMES50.60SCORED A GAME0.602.00CONCEDED A GAME2.202.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.880%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%40%BOTH SCORE60%3.4CARDS IN THEIR GAMES2.69.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES10.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

ARBROATH FC 2 · 20%DRAW 3GREENOCK MORTON FC 5 · 50%

7 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

9 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

6 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

0 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2023-03-17Arbroath FC 1 – 1 Greenock Morton FC

2023-08-26Arbroath FC 3 – 0 Greenock Morton FC

2023-12-09Arbroath FC 1 – 2 Greenock Morton FC

2024-01-27Arbroath FC 0 – 3 Greenock Morton FC

2024-04-20Arbroath FC 1 – 2 Greenock Morton FC

2025-09-20Arbroath FC 1 – 1 Greenock Morton FC

2025-11-08Arbroath FC 0 – 1 Greenock Morton FC

2026-01-23Arbroath FC 1 – 1 Greenock Morton FC

TRENDS

Arbroath FC have scored in 50% of their games.

Greenock Morton FC have scored in 50% of their games.

Arbroath FC kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Greenock Morton FC kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to headleague tablecornerscards