Leicester vs Peterborough United
Match details. League One, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at King Power Stadium, Leicester.
What's at stake. Leicester are 14th on 9 points after 7 games, level on points with Stevenage, 1 point clear of Blackpool. A win would take them above Stevenage. Peterborough United are 23rd on 5 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Milton Keynes Dons, 1 point clear of Wigan. A win would take them above Milton Keynes Dons.
Form. Leicester have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W L. Peterborough United have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D.
The numbers. Leicester score 1.7 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Leicester average 11.7 shots (4.0 on target), 6.7 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 68% of the ball. Peterborough United score 1.7 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Peterborough United average 6.2 shots (2.7 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Leicester have won two, drawn one and lost two. Two of the five went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Leicester won two and Peterborough United won two. The last time they met, on 27 Jan 2018, it finished Leicester 5-1 Peterborough United.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%; three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Peterborough United's record still gives them 21% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game.
The read. Leicester to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Leicester the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Leicester; the meetings favour Leicester. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%. Three of the last five meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Leicester 2-0 Peterborough United (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).