AFARI

15:00Sat 10 Oct

SKO

Ariana FC vs Skovde AIK

CLASS E

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Ettan. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

Form. Ariana FC have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L D. Skovde AIK have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L L W.

The numbers. Ariana FC score 1.5 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Ariana FC average 4.4 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Skovde AIK score 1.9 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. Skovde AIK average 4.4 corners and 1.2 cards a game.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 60% against the records' 32%.

The read. No firm call: Ariana FC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Ariana FC the likelier winners; Ariana FC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 79%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Ariana FC 2-1 Skovde AIK (9% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

ARIANA FC GOALS

Ariana FC Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.11

ARI 8 of 10 (80%) · SKO 8 of 9 (89%)79.7%

Ariana FC scored in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Skovde AIK conceded in 8 of 9 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 84% · Ariana FC: only games against sides at Skovde AIK's level · Skovde AIK: only games against sides at Ariana FC's level

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.4%

Ariana FC goals →

Skovde AIK goals ↓

0-07%

1-09%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.6%

0-17%

1-112%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.6%

0-24%

1-27%

2-25%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.4%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.8%

2-40.6%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

ARIANA FCWWWLDDDLDL1.30 PPG

SKOVDE AIKWWLLWWDLWL1.60 PPG

THE NUMBERS

ARIANA FC HOMExSKOVDE AIK AWAY

1.80SCORED A GAME1.241.40CONCEDED A GAME1.5270%BOTH SCORED90%20%CLEAN SHEETS10%4.44CORNERS A GAME4.441.56CARDS A GAME1.16

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.30POINTS A GAME1.40-0.20GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.10-1.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-2.82.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.810LEAGUE GAMES10

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

94%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

80%

VERY GOOD · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

88%

OKAY · 85/90

ARIANA FC OR DRAW

78%

NO · 80/85

SKOVDE AIK OR DRAW

50%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (10 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

ARIANA FCxSKOVDE AIK

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME2.000.80CONCEDED A GAME2.002.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES4.060%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%40%OVER 2.5 GOALS100%40%BOTH SCORE100%3.6CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–11.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Ariana FC have scored in 80% of their games.

Skovde AIK have scored in 100% of their games.

Ariana FC kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

Skovde AIK kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards