Saint-Martin vs Bahamas
Match details. CONCACAF Nations League, League C - 3. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Bethlehem Soccer Stadium, Christiansted.
Form. Saint-Martin have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W L. Bahamas have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. Saint-Martin score 2.5 and concede 1.5 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets and four games without a goal. Saint-Martin average 20.2 shots (7.8 on target), 8.3 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 63% of the ball. Bahamas score 1.2 and concede 3.8 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. Bahamas average 8.0 shots (2.5 on target), 4.9 corners and 0.9 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. The last time they met, on 23 Sep 2026, it finished Saint-Martin 8-0 Bahamas: Saint-Martin had 26 shots to 2, 63% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 99% against the records' 63%.
The read. No firm call: Saint-Martin are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Saint-Martin the likelier winners; Saint-Martin are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Saint-Martin. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 83%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Saint-Martin 6-0 Bahamas (10% chance).
The agreed story. Saint-Martin or the draw, an open game.
Their internationals. National teams: read from their own internationals. Saint-Martin in their last internationals: won 5-0 at Virgin Islands, U.S., lost 0-2 v Virgin Islands, U.S., won 8-0 at Bahamas. Bahamas in their last internationals: lost 2-3 v Virgin Islands, U.S., lost 0-8 v Saint-Martin. Too few internationals to judge the side from.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).