Antigua and Barbuda vs Aruba
Match details. This is a CONCACAF Nations League League C - 2 clash at Sir Vivian Richards Stadium in Antigua. Kick-off is Wed 7 Oct, 00:00 Lagos time.
Form. Antigua and Barbuda have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, averaging 0.7 points a game. Their last five go W W L L L. Aruba have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, at 1.6 points a game, and their last five are all wins.
The numbers. At home Antigua and Barbuda score one and concede 1.4 a game in their last five, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Antigua average 11.8 shots (4.9 on target), 5.1 corners, 2.4 cards and 58% possession; Aruba average 15.5 shots (5.3 on target), 4.4 corners, 1.6 cards and 70% possession. Antigua keep two clean sheets and concede 1.4 a game; Aruba keep two clean sheets and concede 2.1 a game.
Head to head. In the last five meetings Antigua and Barbuda have won three, drawn one and lost one, with three of those games going over 2.5 goals and both sides scoring in three. In the last four meetings Antigua and Barbuda won two, one was drawn and Aruba won one; the most recent on 23 Sep 2026 ended Antigua and Barbuda 0-1 Aruba, with Antigua and Barbuda having 11 shots to 14, 45% of the ball and three yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. Their goals for and against point to a tight game, but overall their records put over 2.5 goals at 55% and three of the last five meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Aruba's record still gives them 49% to win, but the meetings do not back them. Not everything agrees on goals; their goals for and against point to a tight game.
The read. Antigua and Barbuda or the draw. An open game. Aruba are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Aruba; the meetings favour Aruba. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%. Three of the last five meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Antigua and Barbuda 2-1 Aruba (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).