CPCHN

12:35Tue 6 Oct

TJK

TAJ

China PR vs Tajikistan

CLASS A

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THE BETSTRONG · 10-ODDS · 100-ODDS ·…

DRAW NO BET

Class A

CPv

TAJ

China PR (Draw No Bet)

China PR v Tajikistan

International - Int… · 12:35

1.24odds

81%book

0edge

—angles

THE READ

Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 12:35 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.

Form. China PR have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L L. Tajikistan have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D.

The numbers. China PR score one and concede one a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. China PR average 4.8 shots (1.8 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game. Tajikistan score two and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Tajikistan average 4.7 corners and 1.0 cards a game.

The case against. Tajikistan's record still gives them 34% to win.

The read. China PR to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make China PR the likelier winners; China PR are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour China PR. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.

The bets. Best bet: China PR (Draw No Bet) at 1.24, rated 79% (China PR won 3 of 5 at home (draws left out); Tajikistan lost 3 of 8 (draws left out)). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.09. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: China PR 1-0 Tajikistan (16% chance).

The agreed story. China PR or the draw, a tight game.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

China PR or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.09

CHN 4 of 5 (80%) · TJK 2 of 5 (40%)81.4%

China PR: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Tajikistan: the bet landed in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 81% · each game weighed by who it was against

China PR (Draw No Bet)MAININ CODES

1.24

CHN 3 of 5 (60%) · TJK 3 of 8 (38%)80.9%

China PR won 3 of 5 at home (draws left out) · Tajikistan lost 3 of 8 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · both last 10: 56% · each game weighed by who it was against · won 5, refunded 1, lost 4

China PR or draw and under 3.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.46

CHN 3 of 5 (60%) · TJK 2 of 5 (40%)62.9%

China PR: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · Tajikistan: the bet landed in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 52% · each game weighed by who it was against

China PR or Both Teams ScoreHELD · the odds board 85%

1.17

CHN 4 of 5 (80%) · TJK 3 of 5 (60%)59.5%

China PR: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · Tajikistan: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 63% · each game weighed by who it was against

China PR to WinLEANHELD · the odds board 61%

1.63

CHN 3 of 5 (60%) · TJK 2 of 5 (40%)40.1%

China PR won 3 of 5 at home · Tajikistan lost 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 47% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsBACKUPIN CODES

1.09

CHN 5 of 5 (100%) · TJK 4 of 5 (80%)94.2%

China PR: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home · Tajikistan: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · each game weighed by who it was against

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.26

CHN 4 of 5 (80%) · TJK 3 of 5 (60%)82.9%

China PR: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Tajikistan: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 89% · each game weighed by who it was against

CHINA PR GOALS

China PR Over 0.5 goalsHELD · the odds board 85%

1.18

CHN 4 of 5 (80%) · TJK 3 of 5 (60%)61.2%

China PR scored in 4 of 5 at home · Tajikistan conceded in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 63% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: China PR or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Tajikistan Under 1.5 goals (China PR's own games don't back it (3 of 5)); China PR or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–0 15.8%

China PR goals →

Tajikistan goals ↓

0-011%

1-016%

2-013%

3-07%

4-03%

5-00.8%

0-17%

1-112%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.6%

0-22%

1-24%

2-23%

3-22%

4-20.6%

5-20.2%

0-30.6%

1-30.9%

2-30.7%

3-30.4%

4-30.1%

5-30.0%

0-40.1%

1-40.2%

2-40.1%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.0%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

CHINA PRLWWLLWLLLL0.90 PPG

TAJIKISTANDWWWDWLLWL1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CHINA PR HOMExTAJIKISTAN AWAY

0.50SCORED A GAME1.701.40CONCEDED A GAME1.0030%CLEAN SHEETS50%3.67CORNERS A GAME4.671.67CARDS A GAME1.00

TRENDS

China PR have scored in 40% of their games.

Tajikistan have scored in 70% of their games.

China PR kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

Tajikistan kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards