Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Tue 6 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time. It is played at Yongin Mireu Stadium.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Korea Republic have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L W. Uzbekistan have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D W.
The numbers. Korea Republic score 1.8 and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Korea Republic average 12.3 shots (4.4 on target), 6.9 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 66% of the ball. Uzbekistan score 0.8 and concede two a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Uzbekistan average 10.7 shots (4.1 on target), 6.1 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last three meetings Korea Republic have won two, drawn one and lost none. Two of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 5 Sep 2017, it finished Korea Republic 0-0 Uzbekistan: Korea Republic had 19 shots to 11, 52% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 56%; two of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The case against. Uzbekistan's record still gives them 21% to win.
The read. Korea Republic to win. Their goals for and against make Korea Republic the likelier winners; Korea Republic are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Korea Republic.
The bets. Best bet: Korea Republic or Draw at 1.18, 83% on the records (Korea Republic unbeaten in 5 of 6 at home; Uzbekistan failed to win 4 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Double Chance: Korea Republic or Draw at 1.20. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Korea Republic are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Korea Republic are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Korea Republic 1-0 Uzbekistan (14% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).