Rwanda vs Kenya
Match details. It's an international friendly. Kick-off is Mon 5 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It's just a friendly, so there are no points on the line.
Form. Rwanda have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five are W W W W L. Kenya have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five are L D W D L.
The numbers. Rwanda score 1.7 and concede 0.8 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 7.4 shots (2.9 on target), 2.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game. Kenya score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 13.1 shots (4.9 on target), 6.0 corners and 1.5 cards a game.
The case against. Kenya's record still gives them 43% to win.
The read. Rwanda to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Rwanda the likelier winners; Rwanda are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 21%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Rwanda or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Rwanda Over 0.5 goals (Rwanda's own games don't back it (4 of 6)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Rwanda 1-0 Kenya (15% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).