CA Patronato Parana vs CA Guemes
Match details. Primera Nacional, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is Sun 11 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. CA Patronato Parana are 16th on 34 points after 32 games, 2 points behind Nueva Chicago, 1 point clear of Chacarita Juniors. A win would take them above Nueva Chicago. CA Guemes are 18th on 23 points after 32 games, 10 points behind Chacarita Juniors.
Form. CA Patronato Parana have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D D D. In this competition CA Patronato Parana have gone L W D D D L. CA Guemes have won none, drawn four and lost six of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L. In this competition CA Guemes have gone L L L L L D.
The numbers. CA Patronato Parana score 1.6 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. CA Patronato Parana average 4.3 corners and 2.5 cards a game. CA Guemes score 0.3 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. CA Guemes average 3.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings CA Patronato Parana have won none, drawn three and lost four. Two of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, two were drawn and CA Guemes won two. The last time they met, on 24 May 2026, it finished CA Patronato Parana 0-1 CA Guemes.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make CA Patronato Parana the likelier winners, but CA Patronato Parana are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour CA Guemes.
The case against. CA Guemes's record still gives them 21% to win. The meetings do not back them.
The read. CA Patronato Parana or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make CA Patronato Parana the likelier winners; CA Patronato Parana are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour CA Guemes. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 26%. Five of the last seven meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.17, 76% on the records (CA Patronato Parana: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home; CA Guemes: under 3.5 goals in 6 of 6 away). Backup: CA Patronato Parana Over 0.5 Goals at 1.19. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CA Patronato Parana 1-1 CA Guemes (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).