Mauritius vs Sri Lanka
Match details. It's an international friendly. Kick-off is Mon 5 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It's a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Mauritius have not won in their last ten, drawing seven and losing three, 0.7 points a game. Their last five are D D D L L. Sri Lanka have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five are W L L W W.
The numbers. Mauritius score none and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and five games without a goal. They average 3.0 shots (1.6 on target), 2.3 corners and 1.7 cards a game. Sri Lanka score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 2.3 corners and 1.3 cards a game.
The case against. Sri Lanka's record still gives them 26% to win.
The read. Mauritius to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Mauritius the likelier winners; Mauritius are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 31%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Mauritius 1-0 Sri Lanka (17% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).