Defensor Sporting vs CA Cerro
Match details. Primera Division, Clausura - 10. Kick-off is Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo. The referee is Hernan Heras.
What's at stake. Defensor Sporting are 12th on 8 points after 9 games, 1 point behind Boston River, 1 point clear of Danubio. A win would take them above Boston River. CA Cerro are 8th on 14 points after 9 games, level on points with Juventud, 2 points clear of Racing Montevideo. A win would take them above Juventud.
Form. Defensor Sporting have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W D. In this competition Defensor Sporting have gone L W L W D L. CA Cerro have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W W. In this competition CA Cerro have gone L D L W W D.
The numbers. Defensor Sporting score 0.8 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Defensor Sporting average 4.7 corners and 2.5 cards a game. CA Cerro score one and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. CA Cerro average 2.7 corners and 3.5 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Defensor Sporting have won four, drawn three and lost three. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Defensor Sporting won two and CA Cerro won two. The last time they met, on 3 Aug 2026, it finished Defensor Sporting 2-1 CA Cerro.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Defensor Sporting the likelier winners, but CA Cerro are the stronger side on form and the table.
The case against. CA Cerro's record still gives them 40% to win.
The read. Defensor Sporting or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Defensor Sporting the likelier winners; CA Cerro are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Defensor Sporting or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Defensor Sporting or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Defensor Sporting 1-1 CA Cerro (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).