Match details. An international friendly. Kick-off is Wed 7 Oct, 00:45 Lagos time. It is played at Hard Rock Stadium.
What's at stake. It is a friendly, so no points ride on it.
Form. Colombia have won five, drawn five and lost none of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W W. Peru have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D L.
The numbers. Colombia score 1.2 and concede 0.3 a game in their last six at home, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Colombia average 14.3 shots (5.7 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 60% of the ball. Peru score none and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. Peru average 8.2 shots (3.4 on target), 2.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last seven meetings Colombia have won two, drawn three and lost two. Three of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Colombia won one, two were drawn and Peru won one. The last time they met, on 6 Jun 2025, it finished Colombia 0-0 Peru: Colombia had 15 shots to 4, 71% of the ball, two yellow cards.
The read. Colombia to win. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Colombia the likelier winners; Colombia are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Colombia. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%. Four of the last seven meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Colombia or Draw at 1.09, rated 91% (Colombia unbeaten in 5 of 5; Peru failed to win 5 of 5 away). Backup: Peru Under 1.5 Goals at 1.10. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Predicted score: Colombia 1-0 Peru (17% chance).
The agreed story. Colombia or the draw, a tight game.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).